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This weeks free pick is below:
England » Premier League
Wolves – Blackburn, Saturday, 10 Mar 2012, 15:00
50 points over 2.5 goals, best odds 1.80 @ Boylesports or bet £10 risk free at Skybet
Wolverhampton Wanderers are set to face Blackburn Rovers on Saturday afternoon at Molineux, in what is commonly referred to as a “six pointer” within the English game.
Both clubs’ Premier League status is in serious jeopardy as they sit 17th and 18th in the table with a measly 22 points each. Only eleven games remain in which to garner enough points to earn survival, and this could turn out to be the crucial encounter come the end of the season.
As we already know, the average goal ratio of this season in England’s top flight is the highest it’s been for over forty years, and the reason these two clubs are facing relegation has certainly not been for a lack of goals; Blackburn have netted 8 more times than 7th placed Liverpool, while Wolves have equalled the Mighty Reds with 30 goals in this current campaign.
As we can see (below), the problem for Wolves and Blackburn has been their inability to keep the ball out of their own net.
Worst 5 Defences (Goals conceded)
Overall | |
Blackburn | 60 |
Bolton | 56 |
Wolves | 56 |
Wigan | 52 |
Q.P.R. | 46 |
Home | |
Wolves | 28 |
Bolton | 27 |
Blackburn | 27 |
Wigan | 24 |
Q.P.R. | 22 |
Away | |
Blackburn | 33 |
Bolton | 29 |
Wigan | 28 |
Wolves | 28 |
Norwich | 27 |
With the worst home and away records respectively, you’d expect Wolves v Blackburn to end in an over 2.5 goal result, especially when you consider the importance of the match and the need for both managers to claim three points to give their players confidence in escaping the drop.
Of course, the tension of the occasion could produce a stale-mate, but History is also on our side here; the last five meetings between the sides have seen 17 goals scored – an average of 3.4 per game.
Wolves’ previous six matches have all ended in over 2.5 goals, while Blackburn’s last nine games have seen a total of 34 goals scored.
Both teams have been playing open, attacking football for the last seven months and I can’t see their style of play changing overnight. When you consider their lowly positions, it is impressive that they can boast strikers who are riding fairly high in the scoring charts (below).
Top 10 – Forwardsopinin 10 – Forwards | |
Robin van Persie | 25 |
Wayne Rooney | 18 |
Sergio Agüero | 16 |
Demba Ba | 16 |
Edin Džeko | 13 |
Aiyegbeni Yakubu | 13 |
Emmanuel Adebayor | 11 |
Mario Balotelli | 11 |
Steven Fletcher | 10 |
Danny Graham | 10 |
Yakubu has been a 20-goal a season striker for the past decade and is definitely Blackburn’s main goal threat this Saturday. Wolves will be hoping that their Scotland international, Fletcher, can maintain his habit of scoring important goals at the right time during matches.