FA Cup Final
Chelsea v Liverpool, Saturday, 5th May 2012, 15:00
25 points over 2.5 goals, best odds 2.23 @ 188bet
or bet £10 risk free at Skybet
Of Chelsea and Liverpool’s 10 matches in this season’s FA Cup, 8 have ended in an over 2.5 goal result. This Saturday’s final clearly has the potential for a nervy stalemate but I’d be inclined to think differently given the current situation of both clubs.
Liverpool have failed to perform at an anxious Anfield this term, winning only 5 of 18 games. On the road they’ve fared slightly better though, with 8 wins and 3 more goals registered, and a day out at Wembley is exactly the kind of one-off occasion that their big-game players (Luis Suarez & Steven Gerrard) will relish.
For Chelsea (FA Cup winners in 3 out of the last 5 campaigns), this tournament is not their main focus (Champions League final on 19th May) and for that reason I believe they will play in a relaxed and confident manner, as in the 6-1 demolition of QPR on Sunday.
The highly experienced Chelsea squad will not be fazed by an FA Cup final appearance at Wembley and are more likely to enjoy the game than feel any pressure; Manchester United’s 4-0 destruction of Newcastle in the 1999 FA Cup final, two weeks before their Champions League final at Camp Nou, is the Historical precedent that comes to mind.
The confidence flowing through the veins of Roberto Di Matteo’s men at the moment could well mean we’ll see a stylish and assured performance on Saturday afternoon, especially from the resurgent Fernando Torres, who scored his first Chelsea hat-trick at the weekend, on the back of his potentially career- saving late winner at Barcelona the previous Tuesday.
Torres looks like a man transformed, and this game is the perfect scenario for him to prove to the world he is back to his best form. More importantly, he will be desperate to prove to Liverpool supporters that he was worth the £50m that Chelsea paid the Merseyside club for services nearly 18 months ago.
A make-shift defensive line-up from Chelsea could also provide more chances for the likes of Suarez and Gerrard to grab an early goal for Liverpool, adding to what I believe will be a surprisingly entertaining FA Cup final, as the pressure on both teams to win is minimal.
Liverpool aren’t really expected to beat Chelsea, and so won’t suffer from the usual crushing weight of expectation they experience in front of their home crowd every other week.
The desire and motivation for Chelsea players is clear; the competition is fierce for starting places in the Champions League final in Munich, which should lead to a vibrant and accomplished display on Saturday.
Thanks for reading,
Phil Rushton, Football Betting Master
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